Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,334$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,083.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(50,083.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,331$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(310 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,681.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,681.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,060$ on 2020-04-28

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,128$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,269.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(225,269.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,822$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,163.1}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,163.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $84,403$ on 2020-04-28

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $201,505$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,299.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(199,299.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,359$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,229.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27,229.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $105,205$ on 2020-04-28

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $169,053$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,477.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,477.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,694$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,999.9}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(23,999.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $97,584$ on 2020-04-28

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $162,350$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,820.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(177,820.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,745$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(920 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,933.6}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(22,933.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $139,792$ on 2020-04-28

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,612$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,142.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,142.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,582$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,792.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,792.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,913$ on 2020-04-28

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,877$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(656 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,038.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,159$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,937.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,937.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,485$ on 2020-04-28

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,621$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(823 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,262.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,262.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,355$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(92.7 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,837.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,837.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,261$ on 2020-04-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 86%
Luxembourg recovered 82%
Austria recovered 76%
Switzerland recovered 65%
Malta recovered 57%
Germany recovered 50%
Croatia recovered 40%
Denmark recovered 40%
Andorra recovered 40%
Lithuania recovered 27%
North Macedonia recovered 22%
Czechia recovered 20%
Slovakia recovered 8%
Italy recovered 3%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,795$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 23.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $149$ on 2020-04-28

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,741$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(479 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,607.5}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,607.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $89$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(11.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89.9}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 25.1)}}\) (asimptote \(89.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $529$ on 2020-04-28

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,357$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,829.7}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14,829.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $569$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(47.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{575.7}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(575.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,208$ on 2020-04-28

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,264$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,602.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,602.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,699$ on 2020-04-28

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,700.4}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,700.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,965$ on 2020-04-28